Assume that in a family, each child is equally likely to be a boy or a girl. A family with three children is chosen at random. The probability that the eldest child is a girl given that the family has atleast one girl is
Answer & explanation
Correct answer: option 4
The correct answer is Option (4) → $\frac{4}{7}$ ##
Here, $S = \{(B, B, B), (G, G, G), (B, G, G), (G, B, G), (G, G, B), (G, B, B), (B, G, B), (B, B, G)\}$ i.e., $n(S) = 8$
Let $E_1 = \text{Event that a family has atleast one girl, then}$
$E_1 = \{(G, B, B), (B, G, B), (B, B, G), (G, G, B), (B, G, G), (G, B, G), (G, G, G)\}$
i.e., $n(E_1) = 7$
$E_2 = \text{Event that the eldest child is a girl, then}$
$E_2 = \{(G, B, B), (G, G, B), (G, B, G), (G, G, G)\}$
$∴E_1 \cap E_2 = \{(G, B, B), (G, G, B), (G, B, G), (G, G, G)\}$ i.e., $n(E_1 \cap E_2) = 4$
$∴P(E_2 \mid E_1) = \frac{P(E_1 \cap E_2)}{P(E_1)} = \frac{4/8}{7/8} = \frac{4}{7}$