A rifleman if firing at a distant target and has only 10% chance of hitting it. The least number of rounds, he must fire in order to have more than 50% chance of hitting it at least once, is
Answer & explanation
Correct answer: option 3
Let p be the probability that the rifleman hits the target.
Then, $p = \frac{10}{100}=\frac{1}{10}$ and $q=\frac{9}{10}$
Suppose n rounds are fired. Let X be the number of times the rifleman hits the target in n trials. Then,
$P(X=r)= {^nC}_r \left(\frac{1}{10}\right)^r \left(\frac{9}{10}\right)^{n-r}, r= 0, 1, 2, ..., n$
Now,
$P(X ≥ 1)≥\frac{1}{2}$
$⇒ 1-p(X=0)≥\frac{1}{2}$
$⇒ P(X=0)≤ \frac{1}{2}⇒ \left(\frac{9}{10}\right)^{n}\left(\frac{9}{10}\right)^{n-r}\frac{1}{2}⇒n=7,8,9,...$
Hence, the rifleman must fire at least 7 rounds.