Which of the following observations would most strongly suggest that a society is experiencing the demographic dividend?

A decline in infant mortality accompanied by a larger proportion of people in the working-age group.

The correct answer is Option 2: A decline in infant mortality accompanied by a larger proportion of people in the working-age group.

The demographic dividend arises when the proportion of the working-age population becomes relatively larger than the dependent population. This creates the potential for higher productivity, savings, and economic growth. The dividend is associated with a favourable age structure rather than simply with longer life expectancy or changes in sex ratio.

Option 1: A rising proportion of elderly people relative to workers. Incorrect. This would increase the dependency ratio and make it more difficult for the working population to support dependents. Such a situation is generally viewed as a challenge rather than a demographic dividend.

Option 2: A decline in infant mortality accompanied by a larger proportion of people in the working-age group. Correct. A larger share of working-age people relative to dependents is the key condition underlying the demographic dividend.

Option 3: A sex ratio increasingly favouring females. Incorrect. Sex ratio may have important social implications, but it is not the defining basis of the demographic dividend.

Option 4: A rise in life expectancy leading to a larger dependent population. Incorrect. While life expectancy is a positive development indicator, a growing dependent population can increase the dependency ratio and reduce the demographic dividend.