Practicing Success

Target Exam

CUET

Subject

-- Mathematics - Section B1

Chapter

Probability

Question:

Bag I contains 4 red and 5 black balls, while another Bag II contains 5 red and 6 black balls. One ball is drawn at random from one of the bags and it is found to be black. Then the probability that it was drawn from Bag II, is

Options:

\(\frac{54}{109}\)

\(\frac{51}{109}\)

\(\frac{64}{109}\)

\(\frac{54}{119}\)

Correct Answer:

\(\frac{54}{109}\)

Explanation:

Let E1​, E2​ be the event of choosing bag 1 and bag 2 respectively.

E be the event that the drawn ball is black.

Then, $P(E_1)=P(E_2)=\frac{1}{2}$

$P(E/E_1)=\frac{5}{9}$

$P(E/E_2)=\frac{6}{11}$

By applying Bayes theorem,

$P(E_2/E_1)=\frac{\frac{1}{2}×\frac{6}{11}}{\frac{1}{2}×\frac{5}{9}+\frac{1}{2}×\frac{6}{11}}=\frac{\frac{6}{22}}{\frac{5}{18×11}+\frac{6}{22×9}}=\frac{\frac{6}{22×9}}{\frac{55+54}{198}}=\frac{\frac{54}{198}}{\frac{109}{198}}$

$\frac{54}{198}×\frac{198}{109}=\frac{54}{109}$