The probability that A speaks the truth is $\frac{4}{5}$. A coin is tossed and A reports 'Heads'. The probability that it actually showed 'Heads' is : |
$\frac{1}{5}$ $\frac{4}{5}$ $\frac{3}{5}$ $\frac{2}{5}$ |
$\frac{4}{5}$ |
The correct answer is Option (2) → $\frac{4}{5}$ A → A speaks truth $P(A)=\frac{4}{5}$, $P(\bar A)=\frac{1}{5}$ $P(H|A)=\frac{1}{2}$, $P(H|\bar A)=\frac{1}{2}$ H → Head appears $P(A|H)=\frac{P(A)P(H|A)}{P(A)P(H|A)+P(\bar A)P(H|\bar A)}$ $=\frac{\frac{4}{5}×\frac{1}{2}}{\frac{4}{5}×\frac{1}{2}+\frac{1}{5}×\frac{1}{2}}=\frac{4}{5}$ |