Practicing Success
The probability that A speaks the truth is $\frac{4}{5}$. He throws a die and reports that it is a five. The probability that it is actually a five is : |
$\frac{4}{9}$ $\frac{1}{2}$ $\frac{2}{9}$ $\frac{5}{9}$ |
$\frac{4}{9}$ |
A → a speaks truth $\bar{A}$ → A lies P(A) = $\frac{4}{5}$ $P(\bar{A}) = \frac{1}{5}$ E → 5 has come (A → reports it as 5) $\bar{A}$ → doesn't report it as 5 $\bar{E}$ → doesn't come so P(E/A) by bayes theorm P(E/A) = $\frac{P(E) × P(A/E)}{P(E) × P(A/E) + P(\bar{E})P(A/\bar{E})}$ A/E → a speaks truth that 5 has appeared $A/\bar{E}$ → A lies that 5 has appeared $=\frac{\frac{1}{6} \times \frac{4}{5}}{\frac{1}{6} \times \frac{4}{5}+\frac{5}{6} \times \frac{4}{5}}$ $=\frac{4}{9}$ |